Thursday, February 14, 2008

India vs. China :: Where does India stand in this battle?

In the late 1970s the communist government in China realised that the State Managed Enterprises, which were dominant in all sectors, were facing a severe shortage of funds. This prompted the economic reforms in China in the 1980's. The government had no intention of giving away its ownership in these sectors. Hence even though the public sector companies were not performing well, private ownership was fiercely opposed. The reforms enabled the inflow of foreign investment in China in the form of FDI and FII. This brought in the much needed capital in the country and China made sure that the capital was invested in the SMEs to sustain their growth. It gave many incentives to the foreign investors and lured them to making huge investments in China. Foreign enterprises were allowed to set up their manufacturing plants in China thus providing employment opportunities to the citizens. These reforms have ensured a high growth rate for China. The foreign investors have confidence in the economy and also in the governments resolve in continuing with the reforms.

In India the government was not against capitalism but against the flaws of capitalism. The inflow of the foreign money was opposed not to protect its public sector companies but to protect the small scale Indian industries that provided occupation to many Indians. The government never tried to take control of all the sectors and private companies always found a way to work in sectors where the PSU's had no reach. The economic reforms were introduced in India in the year 1991 due to the lack of funds with the government. Unlike the reforms in China, the Indian government reduced its control on PSUs to just three sectors (Defense, Nuclear power and Railways) and encouraged private ownership in all the other sectors. It relinquished the price control to the open markets and regulated the capital markets to ensure transparency in the use of capital. It reduced bureaucratic procedures and made life easy for business. But it did not open the flood gates for FDI as China did. The FDI and FII were allowed to invest in the country but in limited capacity.

Due to these policies the home grown entrepreneurs and industries were encouraged and the government went a step further by indirectly providing limited protection against the foreign competition. This allowed the Indian industries in high technology sectors (Infosys and Biocon) to flourish and compete against their counterparts in Europe and America. As against this, the Chinese government continued to be liberal with the foreign private ownership while at the same time creating legal and regulatory barriers for private ownership at home so that they could not pose a challenge to the SOE. It used the foreign capital to obtain economies of scale in manufacturing this making it the world’s factory.

Can India surpass China? India has a long way to go before it can really challenge China. Problems like excessive bureaucracy and slow implementation of policies need to be solved by making the political class more responsible. India has many problems other than economic growth like ethnic and religious tensions, a dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir, its internal political instability, etc. There are few incentives for FDI and FII and the poor labor policies, infrastructure and slow judiciary are a concern for the investors. The manufacturing sector and agriculture need a boost so that the long term growth of the country can be ensured. China has its own problems like the control of the provincial and local governments over vast majority of capital-hungry enterprises which creates an unsolvable collusion between regulators and the state's ownership interests. China doesn’t have an independent judiciary. Also the banking sector in china is extremely week as the banks are technically insolvable. This has led to a lack of home capital and excessive dependence on FDI.

The capital markets in India have flourished making it possible for the Indian firms with solid growth and good prospects to raise money as and when needed. The Indian firms have only a small percentage of funding coming from the operating profits while the rest comes from the markets. The banks in India have not done the same mistakes as the Chinese banks and so the banking system is robust. However it needs to have more depth to satiate the need of the growing industry demands. With the government making regulations less stringent for the foreign investors and the NRI to invest in India and with steady economic reforms and the much needed political will, India seems poised to surpass China economically and politically to become the next superpower.

-Mayank

Saturday, February 9, 2008

1991-2007 - The Economic Reforms - FDI perspective


After independence, India chose to be a closed economy where all the investments would be planned so that welfare of the masses would be ensured rather than that of a handful few. India was unfavorable for investment with a low growth rate and gloomy prospects. This changed after tentative reforms were introduced in 1985 and then significant economic liberalization was carried out in 1991 by the congress government under the aegis of Dr. Manmohan Singh, the then Finance minister. The reforms were a reaction to the rapid rise in the fiscal deficits (8.5 % of the GDP) and low foreign reserves (~1Bn$) which had left the Indian government with little funds to run the country. The liberalization opened up the Indian economy towards the Foreign Direct Investment in many sectors and government restrictions and regulations were reduced (e.g. abolition of License Raj) to make the atmosphere conducive for business. The tax rates for businesses were reduced as an incentive. Also the trade policy was modulated to allow import of goods that were previously restricted increasing the competition in the local markets thus improving the efficiency of the Indian companies. The government also decided to remove its monopoly form 15 out of 18 sectors leaving its control only on Railways, Defense and Atomic energy.

These reforms resulted in an average growth rate of 6% in the decade 1991 - 2000. However towards the end of this period, growth in the services sector slowed down. The '.com' bubble had burst and the Indian IT companies were finding it increasingly difficult to distinguish themselves from the ailing companies in this sector. As a result the industries improved their efficiencies by a significant amount and by the end of 2003 the Indian IT companies were a leaner and fitter group. Also there was a tremendous improvement in the performance of production sector and the gradual implementation of the policy reforms had started to show results.

However since the last quarter of 2006, there has been a steep rise in the amount of FDI and FII in India. Good performance of Indian companies is one of the reasons but then this sudden influx needs an explanation. One of the important reasons is that in early 2007, the subprime crisis had been triggered in the US and nobody could predict the depth of the trouble. This uncertainty forced the foreign investors and India (along with other members of the BRIC) has been a favorable locations. The advantage with India is its less dependence on the US (around 20% of the GDP) and so a slowdown in the US economy will not have significant effects. Also it is considered that the growth in India is driven by its internal consumption and so it will be sustainable for a long time to come. The recent sellout by foreign investors in the Indian markets is a cause of worry but a good budget announcement in the month of Feb will definitely make the investors think twice before exiting India.


-Mayank